Thursday, 5 January 2012

Who will be the A team of the Mortgage industry in 2012?

"In 2011 a crack commando unit of lenders were sent to Coventry by most brokers for a money they didn't lend. These lenders promptly escaped from a credit crunch to the London underground. Today, still wanted by the government, they survive as mortgage lenders of fortune. If you have a mortgage requirement, if no one else can help, and if you can find them, maybe you can apply for a mortgage to... 
the A-Team."

The A-Team are:
"Hannibal" Smith (Halifax)
Templeton "Faceman" Peck (Northern Rock AKA Virgin Money)
H.M. Murdock (Woolwich)
B.A. Baracus (Abbey For Intermediaries)

2012 is going to be a pivotal year for mortgage lending. With most predicting stability, the talk is of £120 - £130 billion being the target again, similar to that of 2011. My personal thoughts are that the base rate will not change and the aggression of rates will be dictated purely by the lenders individual desires to gain market share rather than being driven by swap rates. Those that want the share and to a certain extent the risk will reduce margins and have a go.

So, what can we expect from the lenders? Well, I think I can best explain this with the use of the A - Team. We will have our villains, our "extras" if you will, that will have bit parts in our A - Team film. They will play the role of the people that seldom speak, or if they do they will over act in an attempt to get noticed, but mainly there will be several extras that will play roles pivotal to our film, but nothing so big as to over overshadow our A-team.

So lets focus on the A - Team of lenders. Or should I say, who I will be casting as my A - Team.

"Hannibal" Smith (Halifax)

Yes, we all know the catchphrase. "I love it when a plan comes together". Hannibal is the strategist of the A - Team, the one they all depend on, the leader of the pack and the one who is most stable. Hence, there could only be one lender in this role. For me personally, Halifax has always been my favourite lender but they went a little of the pace in 2011. The reason for this was pretty simple. They wanted to. Halifax never topped the leaderboard with their rates in 2011 but I think they will have a strong 2012. Service levels never faulter with them and they remain the constant for brokers, the one we all relie on when others have let us down. With a little more agression in their pricing, I expect Halifax to have one of THE major roles in the mortgage industry in 2012.

Templeton "Faceman" Peck (Northern Rock AKA Virgin Money)

What can I say about Faceman AKA Northern Rock. He is all about smooth charisma, attraction, seduction. Expect all these things from the new look Northern Rock. As approachable as Halifax in their undewriting Faceman will play a big role in my film of 2012. I see them getting stronger and with their strengths we'll see branding and attention to detail that will kick others into touch. With a variety of talents (and product range) they will be one of the leading roles that the public will really warm to. Aesthetically pleasing, they will be a lender that others will want to be. Above all, they will always be your best friend and will always try to help and maybe even...take a bullit for you. If you pick up a phone and call Faceman, he WILL answer your call.

H.M. Murdock (Woolwich)

Murdock. Slightly crazy in persona, very unpredictable but every now and again pulls out a piece of magic. Woolwich, through all my time in the industry can be one of the most frustrating lenders. Sometimes, they can completely steal the show with their product range and offerings, but will let themselves down with levels of craziness, mostly from their service centres. When levels of service are good with them, they really are one of the best lenders in the industry, but this is pretty rare. They are one of the characters in my film that is full of potential, full of promise but more often than not will let themselves down just a little bit. Woolwich are very much like Murdock. You don't want to get in a plane with them, but sometimes you are in a situation whereby they are the only ones that can fly you where you need to go.

B.A. Baracus (Abbey For Intermediaries)

The muscle, the power, the strength and the aggression. That is what B. A. is all about and so to is Abbey. I expect them to play a similar role this year in 2012. With the addition of a buy to let range added to its portfolio this year there will simply be no messing. They will be big, they will be bold and i expect another year of Abbey being near the top of every best buy and increasing its market share more. Levels of service starting to slip a little towards the end of the year but there were reasons behind that. Rather like B.A. and his aversion to flying, Abbey have but one real pitfall as a character (the levels of service), but if we can sort that out we will have quite possibly the most favourite character in our film. Halifax or should i say Hannibal will command the lead for his stability and reliability but B.A. has the power and strength to take over should they wish to.

So there we have it. Our A-Team for mortgage lending in 2012. We hope no offence has been caused to others that have not made our casting. Many auditioned for the role, but we have taken a view of where you have been, where you are going, and most importantly who your agents are! This is going to be a challenging year, we all have a part to play, but with our leading cast above, some enthusiastic "extras" and perhaps a good bit of Direction, we will all be involved in a Blockbuster.

I do love it, when a plan comes together.

Oh shut up...Fool.



Monday, 12 December 2011

Ah! We've been expecting you...Abbey For Intermediaries.

Today was a momentous day in the mortgage industry. For months now it had been promised, and today that promise was delivered, when Abbey for Intermediaries returned to the Buy to Let market. As we fling our arms open and hug them like a long lost friend, our embrace is filled with love, with emotion and with admiration for a lender that has long been one of the major players in the industry and has made a return to a market sector being bossed by two heavyweights only.

The entrance was not exactly that of a returning hero. No stage dancers. No neon lights or fireworks. Dermot O'Leary was nowhere to be seen! In fact the entrance was pretty timid. But at least there was an entrance albeit stage right and in from the shadows. They came equipped with flat fees, and they came in at 75%. So firstly lets raise our glasses to another 75%, flat fee, buy to let deal. Chink. Then, lets toast the return of one of the major players into a sector that has been hit with bad news after bad news. Chink! And finally, lets take a look at what this could really do to the buy to let industry.

Choice in this sector has been minimal. Over a period of 4 years, the buy to let sector had seen a reduction of around 90% of the product range that was available in 2007 and the news of a returning lender to the fold is like a returning hero from battle. Think of the scene at the end of Top Gun. Maverick, having just excelled as Ice Mans wing man, returns to the boat and is swamped by all that know him because his presence was essential. So too, is Abbeys. TMW and BM Solutions dominance has seen fees get out of control and 3% become the norm. 3% fees! The introduction of Abbey and their flat fees will effect this I am sure. The heavyweights will have to offer something to compete...and so begins the price war.

Price wars. A consumers best friend and the basics behind every Economics lesson. Price Wars invariably have one winner. The consumer. And never has it been more welcome. The truth is, several lenders over the last 3 - 6 months have shown a little more ambition in the buy to let sector. Northern Rock, have strengthened considerably. Clydesdale, the mortgage brokers best kept secret, still offering great deals. But it is the entrance of Abbey that will really shake things up. They are chasing market share, having lost a little ground in H1 of 2011 and this is the perfect tool to aid them in doing so. Once they are up and running I would expect pricing to become a little more aggressive and whilst the introduction back in the buy to let sector has been rather soft, make no bones about it, if it goes well, they will go from strength to strength.

The loan to value range and the low flat fee makes the buy to let proposition a little more appealing to the private landlord. Whilst I doubt we will see a return to 2005, 2006 and 2007 where the world and his dog decided to be private landlords, I do think it will strengthen a return to this sector. Buy to lets have proved more popular over the last 3 months than they have done all year and I would expect this trend to continue. Now, aided with 75% borrowing and a respectable fee, the rate itself is almost irrelevant! There is now a route for many that have been thinking about sampling the buy to let market without having to pay a huge fee. Rentals are soaring and rental demand has never been higher with many properties exceeding the expected rental due to sealed bids. Abbeys timing is perfect. The product offering, is not headlining but it is good enough to tempt many back into the market. I expect buy to lets to play a big part of 2012, and expect Abbey to go from strength to strength.

So look out BM Solutions, and watch your backs The Mortgage Works.

Abbey are coming...

...and a rather tempting product range is coming with them.

Tuesday, 29 November 2011

Is this the bus to Positive Street?

I woke up this morning feeling very uninspired, a little down and struggling to find the motivation I needed to get up and get on with things. After a week that involved true tragedy, one that the nation as a whole will struggle to find an answer to (Gary Speed RIP), I was somewhat perturbed by News At Tens attempt to throw the entire UK into a new depression with stat after stat about economic doom and gloom, unemployment rising, and recession being what we can look forward to in 2012. With all this going on, getting to Swiss Cottage for Precises' Bus Tour was low on my priorities. However, having made the commitment, I turned up out of respect for the organisers.

I was glad I did.

Those of you reading this not in the industry may not even know who Precise are, but they are a heavily backed mortgage lender that lends to the mortgage intermediary only. Many have asked why I am such an advocate of them as a lender as they will be the first to admit that right now I give very little business to them. The reason being that at present, is that my client profile does not fit with their current business model. However I have every confidence that this will change next year as they go from strength to strength. The reason I sing their praises so much is that they are doing all they can to help the mortgage broker and the intermediary market. At a time when unity is really important in the economy, Precise are supporting us to try and explain the importance of a broker and the independence we can provide to the public when they need it most. They are challenging the issues of dual pricing and asking banks some very awkward questions.

For that alone, I am thankful to them. However the Precise Bus Tour gave us a little more. The innovative idea of driving a Route Master bus all over the UK giving seminars and presentations on how we can grow our business, and how we can make a better living for ourselves was something that has to be applauded. I see no other lender out there reaching out a hand of support as much as Precise are doing now. 80% of their seminar had nothing to do with Precises offerings to us, just ways in which we can help ourselves and our clients.

After discovering that mulled wine tastes just as nice at 1020am as it does at 1020pm, the seminar began with the Mortgage Industries very own stand up comedian Roger Morris taking the floor. Roger has one of those "Leslie Neilsen" faces from Naked Gun. By that I mean that you look at Roger and you laugh simply at the expectation of what "funny" he will come up with next. He didn't disappoint. As always he had me laughing, which was an achievement in itself given the "downer" I had been on. But as well as making me chuckle, Roger had true gems of ideas for business generation. Innovative ideas that 13 years in the industry I had never even thought of. Every negative, Roger had a positive for and the positivity that it instilled in me was welcome. There is a reason why Roger is Head of Sales.

My only disappointment was the lack of numbers. The list of confirmed attendees was long. The list of no shows was also. Here we had a lender looking to assist and help us in the current climate, go that extra mile to give support to us as an "Intermediary Only" lender, and help us they did. But the support for them was not what it deserved. For those that missed it, I can only say it was their loss. But their loss will be my gain, as I am armed with ideas that can now help my clients and also help me.

It is refreshing in such a negative week to find that there are some out there full of positivity. Full of eagerness and motivation to go from strength to strength. Over the last 18 months many in the mortgage industry have simply fallen on their swords and accepted defeat. But as I have often bleated on about, if we unite in this industry, with lenders, with surveyors and even with the competition, we will soon find ourselves in a more positive position, and we will find a way out of the economic crisis we find ourselves in. I have found that many in this industry "think" they have nothing left to learn. The role of a broker is changing and as brokers we are always on a steep learning curve, even when we think we have nothing left to learn. The truth is, whatever your profession, whatever your position within a company, you will ALWAYS be learning and the day you think you have nothing left to learn, is the day you should retire because you have become too arrogant to grow any further.

Thanks for cheering me up Precise.

Thanks for the innovation and most importantly...

...thanks for the mulled wine.

Now, where is that Yellow Pages.






Monday, 21 November 2011

What was exposed at Mortgage Expo

As the final few guests trickled out, there was an air of success floating around the large hall of Olympia. Stands were full of lenders, conveyancers, journalists and insurers all with smiles on their faces, patting themselves on the back after a successful couple of days of intense face to face meetings with the industries masses.

The truth is, Expo was a somewhat relaxed affair this year, summed up really by the offerings of most stands which had transformed from pens, post it notes, branded umbrellas and tea mats, to a much more relaxed, branded bottle of beer. There were games galore from mini golf on some stands to a racing simulator from Santander who were clearly still milking the Lewis Hamilton connection. I got the impression the focus was fun. Perhaps to take away from the depression that could have been heard in the seminars about "The Year That Was" and "Where Will We Be Next Year".

Without doubt, the buzz this year was primarily from the bridging lenders with Tiuta and Precise really being the focus of the day. Nothing to do with the beer and sandwiches I can assure you, but the welcome that you would receive from them and the hosts genuine intent to converse with us about where they thought they could assist us. I got the impression the bridgers are looking towards a busy 2012 and with several rumours of some exciting buy to let propositions coming in quarter one 2012, I left the show actually feeling positive about my direction next year. Without doubt, the buy to let market is going to grow next year with several lenders still yet to show their hand so watch this space private landlords, things are going to get better next year.

On leaving Expo, this is where the true judgement began. First port of call was the local public house, where upon entering, I realised actually had more brokers/lenders in than the actual exhibition itself. Many, many well known names all in attendance, some slightly more tipsy than others. I wasn't sure if this was a case of being pleased it was all over, or drowning their sorrows but either way, there was an abundance of slightly tipsy characters floating around desperate to talk/spit over anyone that would listen (you know who you are!) The vibe however was a good one and my day at Expo was starting to get better and better.

Having "networked" with many other brokers/lenders etc it was time to move on to the first "after show party" at the rather swanky Boujis. It was at this stage that I performed the annual "completely forget your bag of goodies you have spent the whole day collating" manoeuvre. And I was not the only one. So do not be surprised if The Hand and Flower public house in Kensington is offering free Aldermore Pens/Northern Rock post it notes with every beer. Press be aware, these lenders are not sponsoring the pub, they have simply "found" a shed load of goodies.

Boujis is the club frequented by the countries princes. Quite why I do not know. It was not quite the swanky venue the website lead us to believe, but Tiuta were the perfect hosts and we had a good start to the evening. As the numbers dwindled, we realised everyone was heading over to the second after show party hosted by Precise/Mortgage Introducer. This was a little more relaxed and despite being a free bar, a friend still somehow managed to spend £140. The atmosphere was jovial, lots of inter lender rivalry and a really good buzz floating around. Various dancing competitions embarked on the dance floor of which I had to throw in a few of my very dated MC Hammer moves. My trousers managed to stay in tack this time round without ripping but speaking of rips I am pretty sure I heard my calf go after my second attempt at the box splits.

The room was filled with smiles, and for the first time in a while, the mortgage industry had a buzz back. Something it has been missing for several years. Everyone was enjoying themselves, everyone forgot about how difficult it has become to broke mortgages, how pedantic some lenders have become with their underwriting and for a few hours, the industry was a happy, thriving one again.

Until it all kicked off.

I made a decision that even though this is a "secret diary" that this shall remain a secret. But it was the final act of a day and evening that literally "had it all". It was one to remember. One that proved that there are still a lot of us left making a living in this industry and that still, we have the ability to laugh despite often feeling the need to cry.

Whilst there were many contenders for "man of the match" at Expo this year, my award simply has to go to Precise who were the perfect hosts from the minute we first saw them in Olympia, to the final goodbye as the bouncers threw us out at Rennaisance (oh sorry, I said I wouldn't talk about that).

The mortgage industry lives on...

The brokers are still broking...

...and I look forward to next years Expo, immensely.


Friday, 4 November 2011

What's the down low - on Mortgage Expo?!

You may have heard many mortgage brokers uttering the words "Mortgage Expo" under their breath of late and thought to yourself, what is this? Well, for us brokers, this is the biggest indication of the year as to how the mortgage industry is doing. It is a two day extravaganza, held at Olympia where we bascially cut to the chase. We ignore all the headlines, we ignore all media coverage, all the positive spin every lender tries to deliver every day and we go face to face with all lenders, conveyancers, surveyors and chat to them at the coal face.

It's actually extremely comical. Brokers descend on the venue from all over the UK with one thing in mind...which lenders will be offering the best freebies!

It is judgement day. As far as the eye can see there are lenders set up with their stands knowing that within seconds of brokers coming through that door, they will all be judged. Whoever says size doesn't matter, lied. At Expo, it is all about the size...of your stand. Your stand alone, will fuel some brokers impressions of your financial klout for the following twelve months. Next time they pick up the phone and they are talking to a client about a lender and the client asks "but are they financial strong" guaranteed... 75% of the brokers answering that question will think back to the stand they saw at Expo and say "yes" if it was big, or "No" if it was basically a small wallpapering table in the corner.

Having completed your "first impressions" round, brokers then continue onto the "best freebies" run. This is effecetively a supermarket sweep round the hall, picking up the best freebies they can, knowing that half of them will find their way under your grandparents Christmas tree.
"Oh Lea, a Santander Golfing umbrella! Thanks, that's just what I wanted".
"Thats okay Nan. Love you."
Brokers everywhere, are rearranging kitchen cupboards in preparation for Expo as they know they will need the space for all the free mugs. It's truly an amazing phenomen to watch. And you can't help but become part of it too, as without even realising, you quicken your step to the Abbey stand, in a desperate attempt to get one of the last three Abbey branded calculators...even though you have plenty of perfectly good ones at home.

I love Expo, and the comical value it brings.

When all of the judging and freebie collecting has abated, it is then on to the "spot the ex colleague" challenge. Here, you find that you partake in a finger pointing ritual where you point out all the old brokers that you worked with in the past, old Business Development Managers, and even ex bosses and deliberate whether to go and say hello or not. Over the years, the answers that followed the question "what have you been up to lately" have become a little more depressing and it can shape the evenings events, so you need to chose who you converse with wisely. Depressing stories will mean the aftershow party will be one of doom and gloom. You could ponder your future and wonder if there is reason to continue! Or, success stories will result in a restored confidence in the industry and an evening of merryment. So it is key to only approach those that appear to be smiling.

On completion of "finger pointing" and catch up, it is on to more serous matters. There are often insightful and truly excellent speeches delivered from fantastic market experts giving their version of events and how the year has been. This is always informative and a great part of the day and is normally and excellent way to end the formalities before you head off to the local Public house and find every other attendee in there also. There you will talk about the agenda I have outlined above, whilst comparing your Freebie bag, knowing that it will never really make it home with you anyway, as the evenings drinking starts to take shape.

For the neutral this is a great place to join. This is where the true stories start to emerge, and as some of the banks or buildings societies employees trickle in, the true "I shouldn't say this but..." stories commence. This is where, if you keep your witts about you, you can find out exactly what is going on at brokerages, lenders, surveyors, everywhere "behind the scenes." Here, is where you get the "real story" and it is the true highlight of the event for me.

So next time you hear a broker or lender mention Mortgage Expo, i hope this little description of events will give you a clearer understanding of how it works. Announcements concerning lender figures for H1 and H2 are all very interesting. Lenders talking to the media about their % of market share, well that is all great. But if you want the real deal...if you want the "true story", get yourself down to Mortgage Expo this year, keep your witts about you...and the real stories of the mortgage industry will evolve.

So, see you all there!

Tuesday, 30 August 2011

We're all going on a summer holiday...not!

The clock has just past midnight on 31st August. I have been back home from my last appointment for just over an hour and whilst I sip my tea, and listen to every "old romantics" favourite radio station reminiscing on the 80s, I ponder...WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED THIS MONTH?!?

August is seasonally a month of little activity in the mortgage industry. Families are mostly away spending ludicrous amounts of money on family holidays, piling on the pounds whilst eating yet another pizza as "I'll start the diet when I get back" becomes one of the most commonly used phrases.  Britain's ponder on how dark their skin can really get if exposed to enough sun, and really the prospect of buying a house or remortgaging is the last thing on everyones mind.

So what the hell happened this August?!

This month has proven to be the best month I have had since the credit crunch began. In fact, the best month since I peaked back in 2007. Additionally, the majority of the business was purchase related. It seems there is a confidence to buy again in the market place. Either that or more people have found my phone number!! The fact is, it wasn't just me. The majority of my broker friends have all enjoyed a very busy August. It seems the announcements of H1 results from lenders, exposing drops in market share and smaller profits year on year, got the lenders angry. They priced with an aggression not seen since Tyson stepped foot in the ring in the 90s. For those out there that were thinking "Is now a good time to buy?" the temptation of rates as sexy as 1.48% over base for two years were simply too good to ignore. Rates fixed over 5 years at 3.39% have made  people say "Deal" rather than "No Deal" as people face up to the fact that rates could potentially not really get much lower so it's a good time to lock in.

I predicted earlier this year that 5 year money would drop a lot lower than the 4s we were seeing. I actually predicted that we may even see rates as low as 3.50% over 5 years and I felt I was putting my neck on the line in saying so. So 3.39% was almost as much of a shock to me as anyone. But this aggression, this appetite has now extended to higher LTVs. Skipton's 90% tracker at 4.88% was so popular with clients that Skipton had to withdraw the product with immediate effect and no notice. They were swamped with applications, and not surprisingly so. Abbey stepped up their claim on 90% deals as did Northern Rock, and only today I completed an 85% deal on a fixed rate over 2 years at 3.95% with £500 cashback WHAT A DEAL (and yet again Northern Rock - I say well done).

The truth of the matter is, the market has gone just a little bit crazy. In a world where football players are getting paid over £350,000 a week, it seems lenders have realised that money is still in existence and that perhaps they were a little, erh...tight for want of a better word and have decided to get back to business. We're seeing improvements on score cards, and personally I am seeing a much more proactive approach from lenders, looking to see how they can help us again.

Its beautiful.

Seriously, it is!

I have been encouraged by many things this month. Obviously the activity, but also the lenders willingness to help. To aid, as best they can, to get these applications through to offer stage and to see us get over the finishing line. It seems lenders are back on board the "mortgage lending gravy train". So if there is a message to get across tonight at near on 1am, it is that a) i should be in bed and b) that lenders are on side again. They want to lend. They are helping us to push things through and not simply saying no. They are starting to see that not everyone in Britain has a 40% deposit and that lending at 85% or even 90% can be priced competitively and that there is a massive market for it.

Well done this month lenders.

Well done this month underwriters.

This month you have excelled. So keep up the efforts and we will all go into 2012 with strong pipelines, and clients will go into 2012 in homes so affordable that they don't have to wear 6 jumpers in winter to save on heating bills.

Horrah, for the mortgage industry!

Wednesday, 3 August 2011

Its raining, its pouring, the big banks aren't lending...

A very interesting week this week , as we see the banks post their profits for the first half year (you will see this cunningly referred to as "H1" - about as cunning as a fox, from the village of cunning!).  This is a big announcement. It gives us all an indication of how the banks are performing, if they are on target and how it compared to last year. For me, one of the most annoying statements of the mortgage industry is "how did it compare to last year?" This is never a straight comparison. There are so many variables that contribute to the outcome of lending year on year that I find nothing but frustration in these comparisons! However, that said, I can understand why they are reported.

And so it begins. Santander down 21% on gross lending from last year. Market share fallen from 19.1% to 15.4%. Great! Thanks for those stats. But could we look at the bigger picture here please. Why is it down? Barclays down 10% year on year on their gross lending, market share down from 14% to 12%. Oh dear god what is happening?! Northern Rock, down 25% on last years levels of lending over the same period. Don't PANIC! There is a simple answer here. The market was taken over by HSBC. They really went for it and were top of the best buys for a considerable period of time and it had the effect they desired... a big effect!

HSBC have always been the bane of us brokers lives. Why? Because they don't like dealing with brokers! Every now and again a broker will strike up a relationship with them and may get a few cases from them or send some to them but, in large, there is no official relationship between HSBC and the intermediary. Often this means, if HSBC want to take the market by storm it is without the help of us brokers. So when they decided they wanted to bulldoze the market, their headline rates stole the show. They went into 2011 with a good pipeline of business that was the result of outstanding rates, good advertising campaigns and an aggression no other lender was showing. This has seen HSBC publish results that show they are 35% up on their H1 results in 2011 compared to that of 2010. 35% UP! Their market share up 2% from 9% to 11%. Well done HSBC. A fantastic effort. This also, is the truth behind why brokers struggled in terms of written business tail end of 2010 and early part of 2011. HSBC were simply too damn good.

However, lenders are now fully aware they are under target. These stats don't lie, although as I mentioned at the outset, there are many other variables to consider. But we are already seeing lenders lower their margins. We're seeing rates some of us brokers have never seen before and more importantly for us, we're seeing HSBC no longer at the top of the best buys.

It is this aggression from the lenders, and THEIR panic that is of benefit to the consumer. The price wars that have started and the need to sustain a healthy pipeline going into 2012 has quite frankly seen stupid rates come about! 5 year fixeds from as low as 3.39% is lower than anything I have ever seen. Even better than that is the 2 year tracker followed by a 3 year FIXED  at 3.64%! What a deal! Abbey have come along with some very tempting "1 week only" offerings also that have seen service levels creek they have been so inundated with applications.

I guess what I am trying to say in my secret diary is that whilst all these headlines of lending dropping with some of the big boys is a little depressing, the reality is, this is only going to be of benefit to you , the consumer. The pressure to lend will intensify with the lenders. Will Santander or Barclays be happy they have lost market share to HSBC?! Of course not. This will drive them to lower margins, to become more competitive and further more to ensure they are not in the same position next year and that H1 results of 2012 will be higher due to a better pipeline.

So don't get too depressed about the gross lending being low, ladies and gents. Don't spit out your Earl Grey in shock when you read of falling lending in H1, as my prediction will be that H2 will show increases...left, right and centre! Not just with HSBC. That said, I may still take my local HSBC branch manager out for that round of golf...you never know when they may be needed.

"Hi, is Louis there please?"

"Louis...buddy, long time no speak . So that round of golf we were talking about...?"