Tuesday 21 February 2012

The Mortgage Market Hits Puberty

Puberty.

It brings with it so many changes. Some welcome, some not so welcome. I remember when my voice first showed signs of breaking. I was on stage, playing Joseph in 'Joseph and the Amazing Technicolour Dreamcoat'. I was 11 and the gym hall was full of parents watching us kids. As I embarked on my BIG solo of Close Every Door To Me, it hit.

"For I know I shall Fiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiind".

"Erh, what the hell was that?!" I asked myself.

The big note warbled. I continued as every pro should, but remember looking around and seeing the sniggers. Some things just stick with you, and that did me. Puberty is something we all go through and it brings with it a rollercoaster of emotions. Excitment, frustration, anger, confusion... it is lifes free ticket to the greatest ride on earth. And now, I believe it has hit the mortgage industry.

We have seen the industry grow over the years. We have seen it through the teething of the 90s (17% interest rates were as painful as incisors cutting through!), watched the growth spurt (buy to lets booms of the early naughties), and we all remember the "first steps of FSA regulation." Now, comes the mortgage industries steps into puberty. It is a defining time. Puberty defines the person you become for the rest of your life and is the first signs of maturity. Whilst these changes are difficult to cope with and sometimes more challenging than we perhaps ever thought they could be, we know come the end of it, our character is defined and that puberty lays down the blueprint of what we will become.

This may seem a strange comparison to draw. We have seen a lot in the mortgage industry but what we are now in, are our defining moments. Lenders are making some big changes to their criteria and these changes may come across much criticism but we need to look at the bigger picture. We need to look at why these changes are being implemented and we need to learn to cope with them as they will not be going away for a while. Santander's recent reduction of interest only to 50% was, at first, a bit of a shock. The reality is however, that really we all knew this day would come. How this decision will influence the other lenders remains to be seen, but HBOS followed suit soon after tightening their interest only rules and we expect more to follow. It is a big change from what we were used to. 95% interest only seems almost mythical now. 90% self cert?! People coming into the industry (you brave brave souls!!) must think "surely not?" Surely there was never such a product?! Well there was. 90% self cert, interest only. Its laughable now to even think that such things ever existed but they did.

Such products were like playtime at nursery. They were a pleasure, but lets be honest they simply cannot go on for the rest of your life. We adapt to change in our every day life, in our growth and we understand why such change is implemented. For the greater good. After much reflection, perhaps a little bit of sulking, and then a complete reality check, its clear the criteria changes we are witnessing are all for the greater good of the economy. With so many examples of irresponsible lending in the past, lenders are now asking the question "how will you repay the mortgage at the end of the term?" and we are up in arms at why they are asking! I know we want to be treated like adults, but the economy is in a mess. We must all unite and find a route to recovery. 

It could be argued with no huge increases in SWAP rates of late, that the increase in interest rates we have seen since mid December represent lenders looking to increase profits by increasing margins. But, with everything going on in Greece right now, with the threat of how that could impact Europe and more so ourselves, do any of us really want to be borrowing as much as the banks will lend us and show no signs of how we intend to repay that debt? Who knows what is round the corner!

Puberty brings with it mood swings. We accept that, and these mood swings are often symbolic of lenders and their attitude to brokers/clients and their trust they place in us and our abilities to maintain the payments of the funds they are lending us. We are all maturing in our concept of debt because we have to and because we are seeing first hand the implications that it will have if we don't. We are not taking on as much as we used to and looking at repaying the debt again, rather than relying on property growth to do so for us.

Perhaps one of the most stupid things I have ever done as a growing teenager was "swan dive" into collection of rubbish bags placed outside a pub. At the time, I was an adolsecent, growing up without a care in the world and just having fun. Looking back my thoughts are "what if there were broken bottles of glass in there, what if someone had disposed of a sharp instrument that would have impailed me on impact?" I had cleared a good 5 - 6ft of air whilst forming my swan dive. Actually, it was pretty cool! It could have been very messy. The mortgage market has had these "swan dive" moments and now with perhaps with the benefit of hindsight, looking back and ensuring such moments do not happen again.

Lets embrace the puberty/maturity the industry is showing. I know it is not what we want, and hey none of us every really want to grow up, but we have to. The current climate is teaching us to understand debt again and to try and keep it a little bit more under control. Whilst we find our way to handleing these times, think back to who you were when you were young, the decisions you made and how they shaped your life. And remember that puberty, as tough as it was, was a necessity and has made you the unbelieveable person you are today.

Growing up is hard. But is worth it.

Is that some bin bags i can see... "WAHOOOOOOOOOOO..."

Monday 6 February 2012

The buy to let "Boom" of January 2012

2012 will see the end of the world according to some. Maybe that is why some of the mortgage lenders are being so aggresive with their pricing, as they fear not having long to live.

It has been a while since we have seen such offerings in the buy to let market and people are certainly making hay while the sun shines. I have seen activiity levels increase dramatically in this sector and it has been missed I can tell you! We have seen the likes of Leeds Building Society, Aldermore and Clydesdale increase their loan to value to 80% with the added bonus of carrying flat fees. The Mortgage Works have long been the sole provider in this bracket, so I am sure they will actually welcome the competition to ease the levels of . Abbeys return to the market at 75% borrowing has been very very strong in addition, also with flat fees rather than being a percentage of borrowing. And right at the start of the year Paragon repriced and launched 50 new products with better pricing. All in all, the start of 2012 has seen some very positive steps in the buy to let sector.

The fact of the matter is, there were signs of this in Q3 and Q4 of 2011 and it is very encouraging that it seems to have pushed on into the New Year. I have heard from clients this month that I have not spoken to for some time looking to get back into the buy to let business. So why have we seen such an increase? Is it that demand for renting is now so high that tenants are finding they are having to go to sealed bids to "win" a property to let? Is it that the funding has become so appealing that it is drawing private landlords back out into the market so they can test the water again? Or is it simply that investment opportunities elsewhere in the financial sector are simply that poor that people are seeing very little alternative aside from Bank of Under The Mattress Ltd?

The fact of the matter is, there are a host of reasons as to why the buy to let sector is growing again. At present, we see no signs of this appetite abating. The price wars we are seeing between buy to let lenders are making the terms of borrowing more attractive, and the simple fact that mortgages are harder to come buy on a residential basis, is leaving more and more people with no option other than to rent, meaning the availability of tenants for landlords is probably the highest it has been for years. Coupled with the lack of funding for first time buyers (despite the pledge from "Knight in shining armour" HSBC to lend £3bn to first time buyers alone this year), there is little wonder why the buy to let sector is growing again. Sure, the short term growth in capital is not what it once was, but the old adage of "Its a marathon not a sprint" means that people investing in long term portfolios are still very confident in the returns buy to lets can bring. And with an average age of 38 for first time buyers now, who can blame them.

So buy to let lenders, we will be watching your offerings closely over the next few months. I personally would like to thank you for your boldness and return to agression. Long may it continue. Just do us all a favour and start being a little more generous with your restrictions on New Builds.

Actually...don't get me started on New Builds.

I'll be here all day!

And all night...