Wednesday 13 April 2011

Celebrate good times... come on!

Far too often, we pick up the papers and read of economic doom and gloom. In 2007, I walked through the City of London each morning and there was a buzz. People rushing to be at work, money to be made, business to be done. In 2008, I did everything possible to avoid London. It was terrible. Everyone looked suicidal, there was a smog of doom and gloom sitting above the inspirational architecture of one of the worlds most vibrant cities. Now, the smog is lifting.

And now, it is time to "bring back the buzz" ladies and gents. We spend too long focusing on the negatives that more often than not, we miss the positives through our dwellings on these adverse conditions. Well, today I have been greeted with encouragement again and again. And I am going to buck a trend and share these positives with you, so that you too may want to, "bring back the buzz!!!!"

Lets start at the top...

Inflation in March...FELL to 4.0%. Still double its target but if fell (clapping begins)

Unemployment in March fell by 17,000 to lowest figure since Sept 2010 (the clapping is getting louder)

House prices rose 1% in March ( I can see you all starting to smile)

34% of valuations done in March were for First Time buyers (rapturous applause)

The number of residential Mortgage Valuations increased by 7% year-on-year in March according to Connells (you must be on your feet now!)

Look at the positivity that is flooding our economy at the moment. Sure, there will be some of you out there will want to focus on the negatives still, but why? I know March is always a strong month in the property sector, but that shouldn't mean we should gloss over such incredible stats. I know some of you will have a reason behind each of these comments that means in real terms they don't mean much but to be honest, I don't care. I am going to look at the list, look at what is going on and use this as a personal drive to convince myself a recovery is imminent.

I have been saying it for some time, the level of competition with lenders at higher loan to values is intensifying. This is clearly evident by the increase in valuation instructions for First Time Buyers in March. As I said in my last blog, "I believe" that an economic recovery is on the horizon. And these KPI's given above give a strong indication of that.

Don't be fooled though, despite this fall in inflation it is still too high, savers are still being punished and the inevitable rate rise will occur, if not in May as predicted by many, then surely June or July. But fundamentally we must not lose track of the momentum we have gained. We must not become negative and defeatist if rates do indeed rise by 0.25%, but look at everything that has been achieved in the month of March and believe it is a sign of things to come.

Don't lose heart. Recovery is a marathon, not a sprint. Before recovery comes stability, and slowly we are getting back on track. Day by day, our economy grows stronger and we will take some hits on the way, but we'll just pick ourselves up again and continue to fight. I see the desire in lenders to lend despite the negative press and I know that if we can get through to 2012, strength will return to our economy.

So I urge you all, look at the facts above today and do something you may not have done for a while, step out at lunch, buy yourself a drink, take a deep breath and enjoy. Because today is a good day ladies and gentleman, and lets not let it go unnoticed.

I believe... in an economic recovery.

Thursday 7 April 2011

The good times WILL be back...

I don't know if it is the fact that I thought for a couple of seconds yesterday that my neck was burning in the sun, or the fact that I have four rounds of golf in the diary for April, but things are most definitely on the up in the mortgage industry. I am sitting here at my computer this morning with a huge grin on my face thinking after a couple of years of clinging on for dear life, there is a good living to be made as broker again.

Why is that, I hear you ask?

Well, it has been one of the best weeks I have seen for a long time. Monday we had a good long meeting kicked off with the area managers of Nationwide presenting. They were upbeat, vibrant and energetic in their delivery. They talked of their ambition and of how they see signs of positivity returning to the market. And for that reason, they have entered the large loans market again with lending now available up to £2 million. This is a very positive step. Nationwide were notoriously one of the "conservative" lenders of the past, but they are growing more ambitious and their views (and their rates) suggest that they too, see positive times on the horizon.

This presentation was followed by another lender, one of the best kept secrets in the industry, a lender called Clydesdale. Clydesdale, for me, have always been a fantastic lender. They must have the right type of client but if you provide that, then they will benefit from some great buy to let products and a fantastic residential offset rate. They too, are feeling ambitious and their lending targets are considerably more than they were last year, mainly due to the fact that they also see the market regaining some confidence.

Following on from Nationwide and Clydesdale, I had the pleasure (that's right, you heard... the pleasure!!!) of dealing with Abbey For Intermediaries three times last week. Two applications submitted last Wednesday and one on Friday, all of which have gone to mortgage offer today. That is impeccable levels of service, it really is. Rates were great, levels of service magnificent, and I now have three very happy clients. For the right client, fast track underwriting is amazing but it must be the right client. Abbey understand that and are one of the few lenders that will still fast track cases for clients that tick all the right boxes.

This is how the system should work and I applaud them for this. I know we have had our ups and downs Abbey, but let it be known that right now, I am loving your work. So, everyone...please, a round of applause for Abbey For Intermediaries (that includes you at home sitting there not clapping, get those hands together please!)

The fact of the matter is, the levels of service shown by Abbey, the aggression and ambition recently shown by Nationwide and Clydesdale, and the competitiveness shown by some of the pricing by old favourites like Northern Rock and Halifax now, are filling me with confidence that a recovery is on its way. Rumour has it PWC has predicted the base rate will be at 2.5% by the end of 2012, but fear not world! I am seeing competition in the market again. Something I feared would be lost with the merger of C & G and HBOS, but it is still there. Sure we have lost some of the great mortgage names recently, and seeing C & G was a particular downer for me as I loved them, but competition for market share is gaining momentum.

So, here is a message to all estate agents out there that may have been talking of negativity in lending. Things are improving, lending is starting to find its feet again. As competition grows, so does the consumers ability to borrow and with it their ability to buy. This is always the best time of year to market a house for me. Spring brings with it a freshness like no other time of year. Houses look at their best, gardens show their true potential and the general public is full of optimism. I can assure you, for the right client, lenders are out there and want to lend! Like a cheated partner, they still suffer scars from their previous relationships with some clients, but they are starting to develop trust again and us few brokers that are left, are trying to develop that trust even more.

So agents, get out those mailshots, stick that ad in the paper, and get working on those sales calls, because people want to buy, and lenders want to lend, make no bones about it. We have all been stuck in this depression for too long... but I truly am seeing the signs of a recover. Get your cameras out, re shoot those dreary houses that have been stuck on the market since November when you photographed them in the rain/snow. Buyers, don't let the negative press stop you from speaking to brokers, banks or buildings societies.

So, join with me and write it on your hand...



...you must believe too.

Let me hear you all say it....

I BELIEVE... in an economic recovery.

Phew, all this optimism is a making me thirsty. Frappaccino time.