Wednesday 13 April 2011

Celebrate good times... come on!

Far too often, we pick up the papers and read of economic doom and gloom. In 2007, I walked through the City of London each morning and there was a buzz. People rushing to be at work, money to be made, business to be done. In 2008, I did everything possible to avoid London. It was terrible. Everyone looked suicidal, there was a smog of doom and gloom sitting above the inspirational architecture of one of the worlds most vibrant cities. Now, the smog is lifting.

And now, it is time to "bring back the buzz" ladies and gents. We spend too long focusing on the negatives that more often than not, we miss the positives through our dwellings on these adverse conditions. Well, today I have been greeted with encouragement again and again. And I am going to buck a trend and share these positives with you, so that you too may want to, "bring back the buzz!!!!"

Lets start at the top...

Inflation in March...FELL to 4.0%. Still double its target but if fell (clapping begins)

Unemployment in March fell by 17,000 to lowest figure since Sept 2010 (the clapping is getting louder)

House prices rose 1% in March ( I can see you all starting to smile)

34% of valuations done in March were for First Time buyers (rapturous applause)

The number of residential Mortgage Valuations increased by 7% year-on-year in March according to Connells (you must be on your feet now!)

Look at the positivity that is flooding our economy at the moment. Sure, there will be some of you out there will want to focus on the negatives still, but why? I know March is always a strong month in the property sector, but that shouldn't mean we should gloss over such incredible stats. I know some of you will have a reason behind each of these comments that means in real terms they don't mean much but to be honest, I don't care. I am going to look at the list, look at what is going on and use this as a personal drive to convince myself a recovery is imminent.

I have been saying it for some time, the level of competition with lenders at higher loan to values is intensifying. This is clearly evident by the increase in valuation instructions for First Time Buyers in March. As I said in my last blog, "I believe" that an economic recovery is on the horizon. And these KPI's given above give a strong indication of that.

Don't be fooled though, despite this fall in inflation it is still too high, savers are still being punished and the inevitable rate rise will occur, if not in May as predicted by many, then surely June or July. But fundamentally we must not lose track of the momentum we have gained. We must not become negative and defeatist if rates do indeed rise by 0.25%, but look at everything that has been achieved in the month of March and believe it is a sign of things to come.

Don't lose heart. Recovery is a marathon, not a sprint. Before recovery comes stability, and slowly we are getting back on track. Day by day, our economy grows stronger and we will take some hits on the way, but we'll just pick ourselves up again and continue to fight. I see the desire in lenders to lend despite the negative press and I know that if we can get through to 2012, strength will return to our economy.

So I urge you all, look at the facts above today and do something you may not have done for a while, step out at lunch, buy yourself a drink, take a deep breath and enjoy. Because today is a good day ladies and gentleman, and lets not let it go unnoticed.

I believe... in an economic recovery.

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